We were in the winter of VR, but Gartner put it already on the Slope of englightenment (Image by Gartner)Īnyway, it is super-important that metaverse, digital humans, web3, and other similar tech have entered this cycle: this means that Gartner validates how they can be disruptive for our future. from the consumers’ point of view, or business owners’ point of view). I personally think that all these technologies should be more on the right than where they are, but probably Gartner has its own metrics to evaluate this position, or maybe it considers these technologies from different standpoints than mine (e.g. NFTs are reported as having just passed the hype, but actually, we are now into “the cryptocrash”, so in my opinion, they are more in the trough of disillusionment. For instance, saying that “Metaverse” is just rising now on the hype sounds a bit weird, considering that since Zuck’s announcement of Meta at Facebook Connect the web has been filled with posts about the metaverse and all the trillions it may give us. It’s not the first time that Gartner puts immersive realities in its hype cycle, and also when it happened with AR and VR, I agreed on the fact that they should have been in the graph, but I didn’t agree with their position. You can read a bit more on Gartner’s 2022 Hype Cycle in its dedicated release blog post.
The Hype Cycle gets released every year and is a graph that most business managers consider with great interest: if a technology is put there, it means that has a lot of potential for the future. While you read those bullet points, probably you have also thought about the story of VR, hyped with the DK2 and Facebook’s acquisition of Oculus rejected as a “fad” when the Rift CV1 and the Vive couldn’t reach the expected sales started being considered again with the Quest, and now it’s quasi-mainstream, with kids asking a Quest 2 for Christmas to their parents. It is not special anymore, but mainstream (Plateau of productivity) In the end, the technology becomes useful and widely adopted.Then the technology evolves and starts finding its real use cases (Slope of Enlightenment).
Then people realize that that technology can’t match the exaggerated expectations set up by the hype, so they are disappointed (Trough of disillusionment).
Then everyone starts getting hyped and think that that technology is going to disrupt everything and be useful for everything (Peak of Inflated Expectations).At first, the technology gets discovered (Innovation Trigger).The graph is called the “Hype Cycle” because it puts the technologies on a curve that highlights the typical reception of a disruptive technology: This graph shows what technologies may be disruptive for the short and long-term future, and so what technologies big companies should start working with because they could create opportunities for them or disrupt their own business. Gartner is one of the most respected business analysis companies in the world and every year it releases a graph of the disruptive innovative technologies to keep an eye on: the Hype Cycle. A small primer in case you don’t know what is the Gartner Hype Cycle.
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